Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Gabriele Maria Noce and Calvin Mueller in the ITF Men Ljubljana, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gabriele Maria Noce' if Gabriele Maria Noce advances against Calvin Mueller. This market will resolve to 'Calvin Mueller' if Calvin Mueller advances against Gabriele Maria Noce. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Ljubljana: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Calvin Mueller | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Gabriele Maria Noce and Calvin Mueller are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's tournament in Ljubljana on 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 41% implied probability for Noce's advancement, suggesting the market perceives Mueller as the slight favourite. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating moderate confidence in the outcome rather than consensus conviction.
Noce, an Italian player competing on the ITF circuit, and Mueller, competing from a North American base, represent typical mid-tier professional competitors where historical head-to-head records and recent form carry substantial weight in pricing. ITF tournaments at this level often feature players with limited public match histories, making comparable tournament results and surface-specific performance critical reference points for traders calibrating probability estimates. The 41% probability suggests the market views this as a competitive fixture without a dominant favourite.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament announcements and draw-sheet confirmations as the June event approaches, particularly any changes to scheduling or player withdrawals. Weather conditions in Ljubljana during early June could affect match timing or surface conditions. The settlement window extends to 7 June, providing a buffer beyond the original 3 June date, though matches delayed beyond that threshold without completion would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Recent injury reports or ranking updates for either player would likely shift the current probability positioning.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Ljubljana: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Calvin Mueller" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$123 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $123 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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