Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Agustina Soto Neira and Maria Herazo in the ITF Women Brasilia, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Agustina Soto Neira' if Agustina Soto Neira advances against Maria Herazo. This market will resolve to 'Maria Herazo' if Maria Herazo advances against Agustina Soto Neira. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Brasilia: Agustina Soto Neira vs Maria Herazo | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Agustina Soto Neira and Maria Herazo are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Brasilia tournament on 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Soto Neira's advancement at 5%, reflecting substantial backing for Herazo. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity and reflects the collective assessment of available information about both players' form, ranking positions, and head-to-head record at the time of market creation.
Soto Neira and Herazo are both competing on the ITF Women's circuit, where ranking points and prize money are considerably lower than WTA events. Historical ITF matchups between players of similar ranking typically show tighter probability distributions unless one player has a documented advantage in surface preference or recent tournament results. The 5% probability assigned to Soto Neira suggests traders view Herazo as a clear favourite, likely based on recent performance metrics or ranking differential. Comparable ITF Women's matches with similar perceived skill gaps have occasionally produced upsets, though the current pricing reflects confidence in the higher-ranked or in-form player.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals in the days preceding 3 June, as ITF events occasionally see last-minute changes. Injury announcements or recent match results from either player in the week leading to the fixture could shift the order book materially. The settlement window closes 10 June at 17:30 UTC, allowing a seven-day buffer for match completion or rescheduling before resolution triggers.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Brasilia: Agustina Soto Neira vs Maria Herazo" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$299 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $299 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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