Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Mrazikova and Eszter Dorka Finak in the ITF Women Osijek, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Mrazikova' if Karolina Mrazikova advances against Eszter Dorka Finak. This market will resolve to 'Eszter Dorka Finak' if Eszter Dorka Finak advances against Karolina Mrazikova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Osijek: Karolina Mrazikova vs Eszter Dorka Finak | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Karolina Mrazikova faces Eszter Dorka Finak in an ITF Women's tournament match at Osijek, originally scheduled for 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 81% implied probability for Mrazikova's advancement, suggesting the market views her as a clear favourite in this lower-tier professional tennis encounter. The settlement window closes on 10 June, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude before resolution triggers the tie-break clause.
ITF Women's events at this tier typically feature significant variance in player form and preparation levels. Mrazikova's pricing advantage likely reflects either a ranking differential, recent tournament performance, or head-to-head record favouring her candidacy. Comparable ITF matches at similar probability levels (75–85% implied) have historically resolved according to seeding and ranking position roughly 70–75% of the time, though upsets remain material given the developmental nature of these tournaments. Finak's 19% implied probability suggests the market acknowledges a genuine upset possibility rather than treating this as a formality.
Key variables for traders centre on tournament scheduling adherence and player availability. ITF events occasionally face weather delays or fixture congestion, particularly in early June across European venues. Any announcement regarding court conditions, player withdrawal, or schedule compression in the days before 3 June would materially shift the probability. Additionally, late-stage injury reports or withdrawal news from either player would trigger immediate repricing. The settlement mechanism's tie-break clause at seven days creates a hard deadline that removes ambiguity around extended delays.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Osijek: Karolina Mrazikova vs Eszter Dorka Finak" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $26 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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