Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Louis Larue and Finn Murgett in the ITF Men Monastir, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Louis Larue' if Louis Larue advances against Finn Murgett. This market will resolve to 'Finn Murgett' if Finn Murgett advances against Louis Larue. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Louis Larue vs Finn Murgett | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Louis Larue and Finn Murgett are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Monastir tournament on 14 May 2026. The match was originally set for 4:45 AM ET. This is a lower-tier professional tennis event on the ITF circuit, where both players are competing for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50–50 split, indicating the market perceives neither player as a clear favourite at present.
ITF Men's matches at this level typically feature players ranked between 300 and 800 globally, with outcomes heavily influenced by recent form, surface preference, and head-to-head records. Without established ATP rankings or significant prior matchups between Larue and Murgett, the even probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus view. Historical ITF tournaments show that upsets are common when players lack extensive competitive history against one another, particularly on clay courts where Monastir events are traditionally held.
Traders should monitor the official ITF draw confirmation and any withdrawal announcements in the week preceding 14 May. Injury reports or late scratches from either player would trigger immediate repricing. The settlement window extends to 21 May, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling without triggering a 50–50 resolution. Court conditions and weather forecasts closer to the event date may also shift the implied probability if one player's style—aggressive baseline play versus serve-and-volley, for instance—gains advantage on the day.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Louis Larue vs Finn Murgett" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $47 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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