Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Hiromasa Koyama and Noritaka Koizumi in the ITF Men Karuizawa, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hiromasa Koyama' if Hiromasa Koyama advances against Noritaka Koizumi. This market will resolve to 'Noritaka Koizumi' if Noritaka Koizumi advances against Hiromasa Koyama. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Karuizawa: Hiromasa Koyama vs Noritaka Koizumi | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Hiromasa Koyama and Noritaka Koizumi are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's Karuizawa tournament on 27 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows the market at 100% implied probability for Koyama, reflecting either extremely lopsided expectations or minimal liquidity at the current price. With settlement closing on 4 June 2026, traders have roughly eight days post-match for the outcome to be confirmed and the market to resolve.
ITF Futures events at the Karuizawa venue typically draw Japanese domestic players and regional competitors. Historical completion rates for ITF Men's matches in Japan exceed 95%, though weather disruptions during late May can occasionally force rescheduling. The 100% probability suggests either Koyama is substantially favoured based on ranking differential or recent form, or the market has attracted minimal trading activity at this stage. Comparable ITF futures markets with thin order books often see probability shifts once closer to match day as traders reassess player fitness and conditions.
Traders should monitor the ITF official draw confirmations and any weather alerts for the Karuizawa region in late May. Recent ITF tournament schedules have been published through the ATP/WTA calendars and ITF website. Key catalysts include withdrawal announcements (which would trigger the 50-50 tie-break clause if either player pulls out), and any schedule delays beyond the seven-day grace period. Injury reports or late-stage ranking changes for either player could shift the order book substantially if additional liquidity enters the market before match day.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Karuizawa: Hiromasa Koyama vs Noritaka Koizumi" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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