Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Matilde Jorge and Lauryn John-Baptiste in the ITF Women Montemor-O-Novo, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matilde Jorge' if Matilde Jorge advances against Lauryn John-Baptiste. This market will resolve to 'Lauryn John-Baptiste' if Lauryn John-Baptiste advances against Matilde Jorge. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Matilde Jorge vs Lauryn John-Baptiste | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Matilde Jorge faces Lauryn John-Baptiste in an ITF Women's tournament match scheduled for 4 June 2026 at Montemor-O-Novo, Portugal. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability for Jorge's advancement, suggesting market participants view her as a clear favourite in this lower-tier professional fixture. Settlement occurs on 11 June, allowing a seven-day window for match completion; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved outcome beyond that period triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Jorge, a Portuguese player competing on home soil, typically benefits from surface familiarity and crowd support at ITF events in her country. Historical data from comparable ITF Women's matches shows home-nation competitors at clay-court tournaments in southern Europe command probability premiums of 10–15 percentage points above their ranking-based expectations. John-Baptiste, a Guadeloupe-based player, would need to overcome both Jorge's home advantage and any ranking differential to justify a lower seeding. The 82% probability sits within typical ranges for favoured players at this competitive level, though it reflects confidence rather than certainty.
Key variables include official confirmation of both players' participation and fitness status in the days preceding 4 June. ITF scheduling occasionally shifts due to weather or administrative changes; traders should monitor the ITF's official tournament updates and the players' recent match records. Any withdrawal announcements or late injury reports would materially alter the probability, as would unexpected recent form changes in either player's preceding matches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Matilde Jorge vs Lauryn John-Baptiste" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$49 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $49 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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