Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mia Horvit and Amandine Monnot in the ITF Women Bol, originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mia Horvit' if Mia Horvit advances against Amandine Monnot. This market will resolve to 'Amandine Monnot' if Amandine Monnot advances against Mia Horvit. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bol: Mia Horvit vs Amandine Monnot | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Mia Horvit faces Amandine Monnot in a Women's ITF tournament match scheduled for 26 May 2026 at the Bol event. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Horvit's advancement, suggesting either substantial confidence in her superiority or minimal liquidity establishing a genuine two-sided market. ITF Women's events at this tier typically feature players ranked between 400–800 on the WTA scale, where individual match outcomes remain genuinely uncertain despite apparent pricing.
Historical precedent from comparable ITF Women's tournaments shows that matches between similarly-ranked players rarely settle at extreme probabilities unless one competitor holds a decisive head-to-head record or recent form advantage. Horvit's career trajectory and current ranking relative to Monnot's would ordinarily support differentiated odds rather than a binary outcome. The 100% reading likely reflects either sparse order-book depth—common in lower-tier tennis markets—or a significant disparity in recent performance metrics that public databases have not yet fully captured.
Traders should monitor official ITF and WTA ranking updates through late May, as last-minute withdrawals or injury announcements frequently reshape lower-tier tournament fields. Weather conditions at the Bol venue and court surface compatibility with each player's game style represent secondary catalysts. The settlement window closes 2 June 2026, providing a narrow window for resolution; any match postponement beyond 7 days triggers a 50-50 split, a material risk in spring European clay-court scheduling.
The International Tennis Federation (ITF) designates a World Champion each year based on its own majority opinion of performances throughout the year, emphasizing the Grand Slam tournaments, and also considering team events such as the Davis Cup and Fed Cup. Men's and women's singles champions were first named in 1978; the title is now also awarded for doubl
The 2026 International Tennis Federation (ITF) Women's World Tennis Tour is the entry-level and mid-level tour for women's professional tennis. It is organized by the International Tennis Federation and is a tier below the WTA Challenger series of the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) Tour. The Tour provides a professional pathway between the ITF Junior World
The 2016 International Tennis Federation (ITF) Women's Circuit is a second-tier tour for women's professional tennis. It is organized by the International Tennis Federation and is a tier below the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) Tour. The ITF Women's Circuit includes tournaments with prize money ranging from $10,000 to $100,000.
The 2024 International Tennis Federation (ITF) Women's World Tennis Tour was the entry-level and mid-level tour for women's professional tennis. It was organized by the International Tennis Federation and was a tier below the WTA Challenger series of the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) Tour. The Tour provided a professional pathway between the ITF Junior Wo
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bol: Mia Horvit vs Amandine Monnot" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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