Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Maximilian Homberg and Alessandro Bellifemine in the ITF Men Kranjska Gora, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maximilian Homberg' if Maximilian Homberg advances against Alessandro Bellifemine. This market will resolve to 'Alessandro Bellifemine' if Alessandro Bellifemine advances against Maximilian Homberg. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kranjska Gora: Maximilian Homberg vs Alessandro Bellifemine | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Maximilian Homberg faces Alessandro Bellifemine in the ITF Men's tournament at Kranjska Gora, scheduled for 28 May 2026. The match is a first-round encounter in what constitutes a lower-tier professional tennis circuit event. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Homberg's advancement, suggesting either substantial backing for the German player or minimal liquidity at present price levels. Settlement occurs by 4 June 2026, allowing a seven-day window for match completion before resolution defaults to 50-50 split.
ITF tournaments at this level typically feature significant volatility in match outcomes relative to seeding or ranking position. Historical data from comparable ITF events shows that matches involving players ranked outside the top 300 often produce upsets, with approximately 25–30% of favourites failing to advance. Homberg's current probability pricing appears extreme relative to typical ITF match dynamics, particularly given limited public information on recent form or head-to-head records between these competitors.
Key catalysts for traders include confirmation of both players' participation as the event approaches, any injury announcements in the fortnight preceding the match, and weather conditions at the Kranjska Gora venue which can affect surface play. ITF scheduling occasionally shifts matches or consolidates rounds, so traders should monitor official tournament updates. The settlement window's seven-day buffer provides some protection against minor delays, though cancellation risk remains material for lower-tier events.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kranjska Gora: Maximilian Homberg vs Alessandro Bellifemine" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$42 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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