Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Nadine Hamrouni and Lavinia Luciano in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nadine Hamrouni' if Nadine Hamrouni advances against Lavinia Luciano. This market will resolve to 'Lavinia Luciano' if Lavinia Luciano advances against Nadine Hamrouni. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Nadine Hamrouni vs Lavinia Luciano | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Nadine Hamrouni and Lavinia Luciano are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Monastir on 26 May 2026. The market currently shows 0% implied probability for Hamrouni's advancement, reflecting either extreme confidence in Luciano or minimal trading activity on Polymarket's order book at present. Settlement occurs by 2 June 2026, allowing a seven-day window for match completion before resolution defaults to 50-50 if no winner emerges.
ITF Women's events at this tier typically feature players ranked outside the WTA top 200, where form volatility and surface-specific performance create substantial uncertainty. Hamrouni, a Tunisian player, competes primarily on the ITF circuit; Luciano, Italian, has similarly limited WTA exposure. The 0% probability on the order book likely reflects either sparse liquidity rather than definitive analytical consensus, or recent information favouring Luciano—such as head-to-head records, recent tournament results, or withdrawal rumours. Traders should verify whether either player has withdrawn or whether the match has been rescheduled, as ITF fixtures frequently shift.
Key catalysts include official ITF draw confirmations, player injury announcements, and surface conditions at the Monastir clay courts. The settlement window's seven-day buffer means delays beyond 2 June without completion trigger the 50-50 resolution. Traders should monitor ITF Monastir's official schedule and both players' recent match records on clay to assess whether the current probability reflects genuine predictive consensus or simply thin order-book depth.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Nadine Hamrouni vs Lavinia Luciano" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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