Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Madelief Hageman and Katarina Kujovic in the ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Madelief Hageman' if Madelief Hageman advances against Katarina Kujovic. This market will resolve to 'Katarina Kujovic' if Katarina Kujovic advances against Madelief Hageman. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Madelief Hageman vs Katarina Kujovic | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Madelief Hageman, a Dutch ITF competitor, faces Serbian player Katarina Kujovic at the ITF Women's Kursumlijska Banja tournament on 4 June 2026. The match is scheduled for 4:30 AM ET, with settlement occurring by 11 June 2026. Polymarket's current order book reflects a 75% implied probability favouring Hageman's advancement, suggesting the market perceives a substantial disparity in match outcome likelihood between the two players.
ITF Women's circuit matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in player form and match completion rates. Hageman's probability premium likely reflects either a ranking advantage, recent tournament performance, or head-to-head record against Kujovic. Historical ITF data shows that early-round matches at lower-tier tournaments experience cancellation or delay at rates between 8–12%, which creates resolution risk beyond pure match outcome uncertainty. The settlement window extends seven days beyond the scheduled date, providing buffer for rescheduling before triggering the 50-50 tie resolution clause.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament scheduling updates and player withdrawal announcements in the week preceding 4 June, as weather disruptions or player injury withdrawals remain material catalysts. Kursumlijska Banja's outdoor clay courts are subject to rain delays common to Balkan venues in early June. Any official ITF communications regarding court conditions, draw changes, or player status will affect both match probability and execution risk on the order book. The early morning ET scheduling may also influence liquidity patterns as European trading hours align with match commencement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Madelief Hageman vs Katarina Kujovic" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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