Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Emma Ottavia Ghirardato and Natalija Senic in the ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emma Ottavia Ghirardato' if Emma Ottavia Ghirardato advances against Natalija Senic. This market will resolve to 'Natalija Senic' if Natalija Senic advances against Emma Ottavia Ghirardato. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Natalija Senic | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Emma Ottavia Ghirardato, an Italian ITF competitor, faces Natalija Senic in the ITF Women's tournament at Kursumlijska Banja, Serbia, scheduled for 4 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero volume at any price level, with the crowd-implied probability sitting at 0% YES, indicating no meaningful market formation has occurred. This reflects the early-stage nature of the market and the limited liquidity typical of lower-tier ITF women's matches, where betting interest concentrates only as match dates approach.
Both players compete primarily on the ITF circuit, where match outcomes depend heavily on recent form, surface preference, and head-to-head records. Ghirardato's career trajectory and Senic's recent results on clay courts—Kursumlijska Banja's playing surface—will be material factors. The 0% probability likely reflects insufficient information rather than certainty about the outcome; traders entering positions now face wide bid-ask spreads and the risk that liquidity remains sparse through settlement on 11 June.
Key catalysts include official tournament draws and seeding announcements, typically released 48–72 hours before competition begins. Injury withdrawals or late scratches are common at ITF level, making the 7-day delay clause relevant; any postponement beyond 11 June triggers a 50-50 resolution. Traders should monitor the ITF official website and tournament updates for confirmation that both players remain entered and healthy as the match date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Natalija Senic" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: