Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mayu Crossley and Sofia Jane Thorne in the ITF Women Lakewood, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mayu Crossley' if Mayu Crossley advances against Sofia Jane Thorne. This market will resolve to 'Sofia Jane Thorne' if Sofia Jane Thorne advances against Mayu Crossley. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Lakewood: Mayu Crossley vs Sofia Jane Thorne | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Mayu Crossley faces Sofia Jane Thorne in an ITF Women's tournament match scheduled for 27 May 2026 at Lakewood. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Crossley's advancement, indicating traders are pricing this as a near-certain outcome. This extreme probability typically emerges when one player holds a substantial competitive advantage or when information asymmetries favour one side heavily.
ITF Women's matches at this level frequently see significant disparities in player rankings and recent form, which can drive probabilities toward extremes. Crossley's positioning at 100% suggests either a considerable ranking advantage, recent tournament success, or historical head-to-head dominance over Thorne. In comparable ITF fixtures where one player is ranked substantially higher, probabilities in the 85–95% range are more common; a 100% reading warrants scrutiny regarding whether the order book reflects genuine consensus or thin liquidity concentrating around one outcome.
Traders should monitor several factors before settlement on 3 June 2026. Withdrawal announcements from either player would trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause, as would any cancellation or match delay exceeding seven days. Recent injury reports, tournament withdrawals, or schedule changes affecting either player's preparation warrant attention. Additionally, any shift in the order book's depth—particularly if larger positions emerge supporting Thorne—would signal material information entering the market that contradicts the current consensus pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Lakewood: Mayu Crossley vs Sofia Jane Thorne" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$351 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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