Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Lourdes Ayala and Aurora Urso in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 10:45AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lourdes Ayala' if Lourdes Ayala advances against Aurora Urso. This market will resolve to 'Aurora Urso' if Aurora Urso advances against Lourdes Ayala. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Aurora Urso | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Lourdes Ayala and Aurora Urso are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Monastir on 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 59% implied probability for Ayala's advancement, suggesting the market views her as a modest favourite despite both players operating at ITF level where form and surface preference carry substantial weight. The settlement window closes on 10 June at 14:45 UTC, allowing a seven-day buffer for match completion or rescheduling before resolution triggers the 50-50 tie-break clause.
ITF Women's matches at this tier typically feature significant variance in outcomes, with ranking points and recent tournament results providing limited predictive power compared to clay-court specialisation and head-to-head records. Ayala's current positioning at 59% suggests the market has identified marginal advantages—possibly recent match results, clay-court experience, or seeding status—though both players remain relatively obscure in mainstream tennis coverage. Historical ITF Monastir tournaments have seen upsets driven by unfamiliar conditions and limited preparation time for lower-ranked competitors.
Traders should monitor official ITF and WTA tour announcements for any withdrawal declarations, injury reports, or schedule changes in the week preceding 3 June. Weather disruptions affecting North African clay tournaments have occasionally forced rescheduling beyond the seven-day window. Recent player activity on the ITF circuit—particularly tournament results from May 2026—will provide the most concrete signal for recalibrating the current probability before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Aurora Urso" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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