Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mateus Alves and Nicolas Villalon in the ITF Men Cuiaba, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 5:15PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mateus Alves' if Mateus Alves advances against Nicolas Villalon. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Villalon' if Nicolas Villalon advances against Mateus Alves. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Cuiaba: Mateus Alves vs Nicolas Villalon | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Mateus Alves faces Nicolas Villalon in an ITF Men's event in Cuiabá, scheduled for 2 June 2026. The match is set for 5:15 PM ET, with settlement occurring by 21:15 UTC on 9 June. The 90% implied probability currently reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests strong market confidence in Alves advancing, though this represents a lower-tier ITF tournament where upsets occur more frequently than at ATP level. The probability formation reflects both players' recent form and head-to-head record, if available, alongside broader market sentiment on the Polymarket book.
ITF tournaments at this tier typically feature players ranked outside the ATP top 500, where form volatility is pronounced and surface specialisation matters considerably. Cuiabá's clay courts favour baseline players with strong defensive capabilities. Historical ITF data shows that matches involving players with significant ranking gaps do tend toward favourites, but the 90% threshold is notably high for a match between players of comparable ITF ranking. This suggests either Alves holds a clear ranking or recent-form advantage, or the market has incorporated specific intelligence about Villalon's current condition or availability.
Traders should monitor for late withdrawals or injury announcements in the days preceding the match, as ITF players frequently pull out due to competing opportunities or minor injuries. Court surface conditions and weather in Cuiabá during early June could influence play style. The settlement window extends seven days beyond the scheduled date, meaning delays beyond 9 June without completion would trigger a 50-50 resolution, introducing tail risk for positions held through that period.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Cuiaba: Mateus Alves vs Nicolas Villalon" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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