Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Adam Walton and Yunchaokete Bu in the Wuxi, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adam Walton' if Adam Walton advances against Yunchaokete Bu. This market will resolve to 'Yunchaokete Bu' if Yunchaokete Bu advances against Adam Walton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu Match O/U 21.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu Match O/U 22.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Adam Walton and Yunchaokete Bu are scheduled to compete in a tennis match at Wuxi on 7 May 2026, with the settlement window closing on 15 May. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trading activity or an absence of backing for Walton's victory at current prices. Such extreme probabilities typically emerge when one side of a match receives virtually no buy interest, leaving the book unbalanced and the price anchored at its floor. Traders should note that this reflects current liquidity conditions rather than a consensus forecast of the outcome.
Context for interpreting this probability requires understanding the relative rankings and recent form of both players. Yunchaokete Bu competes primarily on the ITF and lower-tier professional circuits, whilst Walton's recent activity and seeding status at Wuxi would determine whether the market's assessment reflects genuine disparity or simply a lack of informed trading interest. Historical patterns show that matches involving lower-ranked or less-publicised players often trade at extreme probabilities simply due to thin order books rather than strong directional conviction.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and player confirmations as the match date approaches, particularly any withdrawal announcements or schedule changes. The settlement terms allow for a 50-50 resolution if the match is delayed beyond seven days without completion or if either player retires after play begins. Recent ITF and ATP Challenger draws typically confirm participation within two weeks of competition, providing a catalyst for any significant repricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$211K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $208K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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