Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Topo and Nishesh Basavareddy in the Mauthausen, originally scheduled for April 28, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Topo' if Marko Topo advances against Nishesh Basavareddy. This market will resolve to 'Nishesh Basavareddy' if Nishesh Basavareddy advances against Marko Topo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Marko Topo and Nishesh Basavareddy are scheduled to compete in a tennis match at Mauthausen on 28 April 2026, with the winner advancing in the tournament. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating traders view both players as evenly matched prospects for this fixture. The settlement window extends to 5 May 2026, allowing a week for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Both players operate at the lower tiers of professional tennis, making direct historical precedent limited. Topo, a Croatian player, and Basavareddy, an American competitor, have competed primarily on the ATP Challenger and ITF circuits. Their head-to-head record, if one exists, would be sparse. The even implied probability suggests the market lacks strong conviction data on either player's recent form, surface preference on clay, or psychological factors that might favour one competitor at this particular venue.
Traders should monitor official ATP or Challenger circuit announcements regarding any schedule changes, player withdrawals, or injury disclosures in the weeks preceding the match. Weather conditions at Mauthausen in late April could affect play timing. Recent tournament results for both players—particularly performances on clay courts—will provide concrete form indicators. Any shifts in betting markets on related tournaments or player-specific injury reports would likely move the order book away from parity before the settlement window closes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Nishesh Basavareddy" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$914 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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