Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Tabilo and Aleksandar Kovacevic in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Aleksandar Kovacevic. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Kovacevic' if Aleksandar Kovacevic advances against Alejandro Tabilo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic | 79% YES | 22% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 77% YES | 23% NO |
| Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Match O/U 21.5 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Set 1 Winner | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Match O/U 22.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Alejandro Tabilo faces Aleksandar Kovacevic in a Valencia tournament match scheduled for 14 May 2026. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 79% implied probability for Tabilo's advancement, suggesting the market views him as a clear favourite. This probability is formed through live trading activity on the platform, where buyers and sellers establish prices based on their assessments of match outcomes.
Tabilo, a Chilean player ranked in the ATP's upper-middle tier, has demonstrated consistent performance on hard courts where Valencia is contested. Kovacevic, an American competitor, typically operates at a lower ranking and has shown variable results against higher-seeded opponents. Historical matchups between players of differing ranking tiers at ATP 500 events show that the higher-ranked player wins approximately 75–80% of such encounters, which aligns closely with the current market pricing. Recent tournament data from 2025 indicates Tabilo's win rate in similar circumstances hovers around this range.
Traders should monitor several factors through the settlement window closing 21 May. Injury reports or withdrawal announcements in the week preceding the match would trigger immediate repricing. Weather conditions in Valencia during mid-May occasionally affect scheduling, though the market's 50-50 resolution clause only activates if the match remains unplayed beyond seven days post-scheduled date. Court surface conditions and any last-minute ranking adjustments affecting seeding could also influence trading activity, though these typically have marginal impact on such a clear-cut matchup.
Jonathan Alejandro Villanueva Valencia is Mexican actor, model and beauty pageant titleholder who was crowned Mr Model Mexico. He became Mexico's representative to Mister International 2014 and finished in the Top 10.
Valentín Alejandro Pezzolesi is a Spanish footballer who plays as a right-back for UD Las Palmas.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Aleksandar Kovacevic" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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