Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Keegan Smith and Dominik Palan in the Bengaluru 2, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Smith' if Keegan Smith advances against Dominik Palan. This market will resolve to 'Dominik Palan' if Dominik Palan advances against Keegan Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Dominik Palan | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Keegan Smith and Dominik Palan are scheduled to meet in the Bengaluru 2 tournament on 13 May 2026 at 1:30 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability for Smith's advancement, suggesting the market has priced him as a clear favourite. This probability is formed through live trading activity on the platform's order book, where traders continuously adjust positions based on their assessment of the match outcome.
Smith's elevated probability aligns with typical market behaviour when one player holds a ranking or recent form advantage over their opponent. Historical patterns in tennis prediction markets show that favourites at this probability level—typically seeded players or those with superior recent results—advance roughly 80–85% of the time, though this varies significantly by tournament tier and player consistency. The Bengaluru tournament sits at ATP 250 level, where upsets occur more frequently than at Grand Slams, but the current pricing suggests the market views Smith as substantially more likely to progress.
Traders should monitor several catalysts before the 20 May settlement deadline. Injury announcements or withdrawal news in the days preceding the match would trigger immediate repricing. Court surface conditions and weather forecasts for Bengaluru in mid-May may favour one player's style over the other. Recent head-to-head records, if available, and any late ranking shifts would also influence the order book. The seven-day delay clause means matches postponed beyond 20 May would resolve to 50–50, creating a secondary risk factor independent of on-court performance.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Dominik Palan" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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