Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Joel Schwaerzler and Federico Cina in the Tunis, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joel Schwaerzler' if Joel Schwaerzler advances against Federico Cina. This market will resolve to 'Federico Cina' if Federico Cina advances against Joel Schwaerzler. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tunis: Joel Schwaerzler vs Federico Cina | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Joel Schwaerzler and Federico Cina are scheduled to meet in the Tunis tournament on 13 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 54% implied probability for Schwaerzler's advancement, formed through the order book on Polymarket. This fixture sits within the ATP Challenger circuit calendar, where both players compete regularly. The settlement window extends to 20 May, allowing a seven-day grace period for rescheduling before the market resolves to a 50-50 split if no winner is determined.
Schwaerzler, an Austrian player, and Cina, an Italian competitor, occupy similar rankings within the Challenger ecosystem. Historical precedent suggests that matches between players of comparable ranking at this level tend to reflect modest probability spreads—typically within the 45–55 range—unless one player holds a significant head-to-head advantage or recent form differential. Neither player commands the profile of a heavy favourite at Challenger events, which aligns with the current market pricing.
Traders should monitor tournament scheduling confirmations and any player withdrawal announcements in the days preceding 13 May. Surface conditions at the Tunis venue (typically clay) and recent match results from both players on similar surfaces will influence late-market movement. Injury reports or late-stage ranking shifts that affect seeding could also shift the order book, particularly if either player's form trajectory changes materially between now and the match date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tunis: Joel Schwaerzler vs Federico Cina" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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