Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between David Jorda Sanchis and Eero Vasa in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'David Jorda Sanchis' if David Jorda Sanchis advances against Eero Vasa. This market will resolve to 'Eero Vasa' if Eero Vasa advances against David Jorda Sanchis. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Oeiras 4: David Jorda Sanchis vs Eero Vasa | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oeiras 4: David Jorda Sanchis vs Eero Vasa Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oeiras 4: David Jorda Sanchis vs Eero Vasa Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oeiras 4: David Jorda Sanchis vs Eero Vasa Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oeiras 4: David Jorda Sanchis vs Eero Vasa Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Oeiras 4: David Jorda Sanchis vs Eero Vasa Set 1 Winner | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Oeiras 4: David Jorda Sanchis vs Eero Vasa Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
David Jorda Sanchis, a Spanish professional ranked outside the ATP top 200, faces Finland's Eero Vasa in the Oeiras 4 tournament on the ATP Challenger circuit, scheduled for 12 May 2026. The match represents a mid-tier Challenger encounter where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 33% implied probability for Jorda Sanchis, suggesting the market views Vasa as the favoured outcome at roughly 67% likelihood.
Jorda Sanchis has competed primarily on the Challenger and ITF circuits, with limited ATP-level exposure, whilst Vasa similarly operates at Challenger level with occasional ATP qualifying appearances. Head-to-head records between players at this ranking tier are sparse, making historical matchup data unreliable for probability calibration. Instead, traders typically reference recent form, surface preference on clay (Oeiras is played on clay courts), and tournament-specific seeding or draw position. The current 33% probability suggests the market perceives a meaningful gap in form or capability, though not an overwhelming one.
Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger circuit announcements regarding final draw confirmation and any player withdrawals through early May. Injury reports or late schedule changes could shift probabilities materially. Surface conditions at the Oeiras venue—clay court performance metrics favour certain playing styles—and any recent tournament results from both players in April 2026 will inform position adjustments. The settlement window closes 19 May, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for match completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Oeiras 4: David Jorda Sanchis vs Eero Vasa" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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