Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Rio Noguchi and Jie Cui in the Wuxi, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rio Noguchi' if Rio Noguchi advances against Jie Cui. This market will resolve to 'Jie Cui' if Jie Cui advances against Rio Noguchi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui Match O/U 22.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui Match O/U 23.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Rio Noguchi and Jie Cui are scheduled to compete in a tennis match at the Wuxi event on 7 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for Noguchi's advancement, suggesting either substantial backing for Cui or minimal liquidity establishing a floor price. Settlement occurs by 15 May 2026, allowing an eight-day window for match completion.
The 0% implied probability warrants scrutiny against comparable WTA and ATP Challenger matchups at Chinese venues. Matches between unseeded or lower-ranked players at secondary tour stops frequently trade with wider probability distributions, particularly when one competitor holds recent form advantages or head-to-head records. The absence of any YES position in the order book may indicate thin initial liquidity rather than decisive market conviction about Cui's superiority.
Traders should monitor the official Wuxi tournament draw confirmation, player withdrawal announcements, and recent performance data from both competitors in the weeks preceding 7 May. Weather disruptions at Chinese venues have historically caused match delays; the seven-day grace period before 50-50 resolution provides some buffer but remains material. Any injury updates or ranking changes affecting either player's seeding could shift the probability substantially once deeper liquidity enters the book. Current conditions suggest the market awaits additional information before establishing meaningful price discovery.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Jie Cui" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$99K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $97K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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