Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Lukas Neumayer and Tom Gentzsch in the Vicenza, originally scheduled for May 25, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lukas Neumayer' if Lukas Neumayer advances against Tom Gentzsch. This market will resolve to 'Tom Gentzsch' if Tom Gentzsch advances against Lukas Neumayer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tom Gentzsch | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tom Gentzsch Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tom Gentzsch Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tom Gentzsch Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tom Gentzsch Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tom Gentzsch Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tom Gentzsch Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Lukas Neumayer and Tom Gentzsch are scheduled to meet in a tennis match at the Vicenza event on 25 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50–50 split, indicating genuine uncertainty about the outcome. Both players are competing at a similar tier of professional tennis, and the even probability suggests the market has not yet identified a clear favourite based on available form data, head-to-head records, or recent tournament results.
Context for reading this probability requires examining comparable lower-tier ATP or Challenger circuit matches where seeding differentials and recent win-loss records typically drive pricing. If either player has a significant ranking advantage or has recently posted strong results on clay courts—Vicenza's surface—that information would normally compress the probability toward the favoured player. The settlement window closes on 1 June 2026, allowing roughly a week after the scheduled match date for completion or resolution of any delays.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and player injury announcements in the weeks leading up to the event. Withdrawal notices, particularly if either player pulls out due to injury or scheduling conflicts, would trigger the 50–50 tie-break resolution. Court conditions and weather forecasts closer to the match date may also shift sentiment if one player has a documented preference for fast or slow court play. Any ranking changes or tournament cancellations affecting either player's preparation schedule could shift the current equilibrium.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Vicenza: Lukas Neumayer vs Tom Gentzsch" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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