Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Adolfo Vallejo in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Bernabe Zapata Miralles' if Bernabe Zapata Miralles advances against Adolfo Vallejo. This market will resolve to 'Adolfo Vallejo' if Adolfo Vallejo advances against Bernabe Zapata Miralles. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo Set 1 Winner | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo Match O/U 22.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Adolfo Vallejo are scheduled to meet in a first-round match at the Valencia Open 500 on 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Zapata Miralles's advancement at 7%, implying Vallejo is heavily favoured at 93%. This probability reflects real-time trading activity and represents the aggregate view of market participants assessing the matchup's likely outcome.
Both players compete primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit, where head-to-head records and recent form carry substantial weight in pricing. Zapata Miralles, a Spanish left-hander, has shown inconsistent results at ATP level despite occasional deep runs in lower-tier events. Vallejo, also Spanish, has similarly struggled to establish consistent ranking gains. In matchups between players of comparable ranking and circuit experience, the market typically assigns modest probabilities to the lower-ranked or less-favoured player, particularly when one has demonstrated superior recent momentum or a favourable head-to-head record.
Traders should monitor official ATP and Valencia tournament communications for any withdrawals, injury announcements, or scheduling changes prior to the 19 May settlement deadline. Recent form updates—particularly results from warm-up events in late April and early May—will likely shift the order book as the match date approaches. Court surface preference, recent match fitness, and any late-breaking personnel changes (coaching staff, physical condition) represent the primary catalysts that could move the current 7% price materially in either direction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Bernabe Zapata Miralles vs Adolfo Vallejo" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$212 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $212 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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