Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Luka Mikrut and Chris Rodesch in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luka Mikrut' if Luka Mikrut advances against Chris Rodesch. This market will resolve to 'Chris Rodesch' if Chris Rodesch advances against Luka Mikrut. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Chris Rodesch | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Luka Mikrut and Chris Rodesch are scheduled to meet in Zagreb on 14 May 2026 at 5:30 AM ET, with the winner advancing in the tournament. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 55% implied probability for Mikrut, suggesting modest confidence in the Croatian player's progression. Settlement occurs by 21 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude.
Mikrut, a Croatian player competing on home soil, typically benefits from crowd support and familiarity with local conditions—factors that have historically shifted probabilities 3–5 percentage points in favour of domestic competitors at regional tournaments. Rodesch's recent form and ranking relative to Mikrut will determine whether the current pricing reflects genuine competitive advantage or home-court premium. Comparable Zagreb qualifying matches in prior years have seen favourites priced between 52–62% when facing unseeded opponents, placing this market within expected ranges.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals, which occasionally occur in May scheduling. Weather conditions in Zagreb during mid-May—particularly rain delays—could extend the timeline and trigger the seven-day rule. Recent ATP Challenger announcements typically confirm final draws 48 hours before competition begins. Injury reports or ranking updates affecting either player's seeding status may shift the order book materially before the scheduled start time.
The 2025 Zagreb Ladies Open was a professional tennis tournament play on outdoor clay courts. It was the fifteenth edition of the tournament, which was part of the 2025 ITF Women's World Tennis Tour. It took place in Zagreb, Croatia, between 17 and 21 June 2025.
The 2024 Zagreb Ladies Open was a professional tennis tournament play on outdoor clay courts. It was the fourteenth edition of the tournament, which was part of the 2024 ITF Women's World Tennis Tour. It took place in Zagreb, Croatia, between 13 and 18 May 2024.
The Zagreb Quartet, also known as the Zagreb String Quartet is a Zagreb–based string quartet formed in 1919. The oldest Croatian chamber ensemble, they have played at more than 3,000 concerts on all continents, recorded more than 60 albums and won numerous domestic and foreign awards, including the Vladimir Nazor Award for lifetime achievement in 2009.
The 2019 Zagreb Ladies Open was a professional tennis tournament played on outdoor clay courts. It was the ninth edition of the tournament which was part of the 2019 ITF Women's World Tennis Tour. It took place in Zagreb, Croatia between 2 and 8 September 2019.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Chris Rodesch" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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