Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Luka Mikrut and Justin Engel in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luka Mikrut' if Luka Mikrut advances against Justin Engel. This market will resolve to 'Justin Engel' if Justin Engel advances against Luka Mikrut. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel Match O/U 21.5 | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel Match O/U 22.5 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel Set 1 Winner | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% YES | 25% NO |
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
Luka Mikrut and Justin Engel are scheduled to meet in Zagreb on 11 May 2026 at 4:00 AM ET, with the market settlement window closing on 18 May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 53% implied probability for Mikrut's advancement, suggesting near-parity between the two competitors with a marginal lean towards the Croatian player. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices converges towards fair value as liquidity accumulates.
Both players operate at the ATP Challenger level, where head-to-head records and recent form carry substantial weight in match outcomes. Mikrut, competing primarily on European clay and hard courts, has shown variable consistency across the Challenger circuit. Engel, a German player, similarly competes across multiple surfaces with mixed results. The 53–47 split suggests traders view this as a genuine toss-up, with no dominant historical advantage or recent form differential compelling a stronger consensus in either direction.
Key catalysts for traders include any official scheduling changes or venue announcements from the ATP, injury disclosures from either player in the weeks preceding the match, and surface conditions in Zagreb which may favour one player's style over the other. Recent ATP Challenger results from both players through April 2026 will provide the most current form data. The seven-day grace period in the resolution criteria means delays beyond 18 May would trigger a 50–50 settlement, creating a distinct risk boundary for positions held through the window.
The 2025 Zagreb Ladies Open was a professional tennis tournament play on outdoor clay courts. It was the fifteenth edition of the tournament, which was part of the 2025 ITF Women's World Tennis Tour. It took place in Zagreb, Croatia, between 17 and 21 June 2025.
The 2024 Zagreb Ladies Open was a professional tennis tournament play on outdoor clay courts. It was the fourteenth edition of the tournament, which was part of the 2024 ITF Women's World Tennis Tour. It took place in Zagreb, Croatia, between 13 and 18 May 2024.
The Zagreb Quartet, also known as the Zagreb String Quartet is a Zagreb–based string quartet formed in 1919. The oldest Croatian chamber ensemble, they have played at more than 3,000 concerts on all continents, recorded more than 60 albums and won numerous domestic and foreign awards, including the Vladimir Nazor Award for lifetime achievement in 2009.
The 2019 Zagreb Ladies Open was a professional tennis tournament played on outdoor clay courts. It was the ninth edition of the tournament which was part of the 2019 ITF Women's World Tennis Tour. It took place in Zagreb, Croatia between 2 and 8 September 2019.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zagreb: Luka Mikrut vs Justin Engel" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $51K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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