Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Alvaro Guillen Meza and Josip Simundza in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alvaro Guillen Meza' if Alvaro Guillen Meza advances against Josip Simundza. This market will resolve to 'Josip Simundza' if Josip Simundza advances against Alvaro Guillen Meza. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Alvaro Guillen Meza and Josip Simundza are scheduled to meet in a Zagreb tennis match on 11 May 2026. The market currently reflects an 78% probability favouring Guillen Meza's advancement, as shown across Polymarket's order book. Settlement occurs by 18 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Guillen Meza, a Colombian player, and Simundza, a Croatian competitor, operate at different tiers of professional tennis. Simundza's home advantage in Zagreb typically carries weight in lower-tier ATP and Challenger events, though the current 78% lean towards Guillen Meza suggests the market assesses him as the stronger player on form or ranking. Historical precedent in similar regional tournaments shows home players command 5–10 percentage-point premiums; the absence of a larger Simundza boost here indicates confidence in Guillen Meza's baseline quality.
Traders should monitor official ATP or Challenger circuit announcements regarding draw confirmation, player withdrawals, and injury reports in the fortnight before 11 May. Weather conditions in Zagreb during early May occasionally disrupt scheduling; any rain delays approaching the settlement deadline could trigger the 50-50 clause. Recent tournament calendars show Zagreb events typically proceed on schedule, though late withdrawals remain a consideration. Confirmation of both players' participation and fitness status will sharpen the probability closer to match day.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$117K in lifetime turnover and $401K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $117K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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