Trade: Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Mensik and Alexander Zverev in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Alexander Zverev. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Jakub Mensik. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $303K
- Total Volume
- $8K
- 24h Volume
- $8K
- Open Interest
- $8K
Market outcomes
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| Completed Match | 80% YES | 20% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Set 1 Winner | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Match O/U 36.5 | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 55% YES | 45% NO |
| Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 56% YES | 45% NO |
Market context
Jakub Mensik faces Alexander Zverev in the second round of Roland Garros in June 2026. The 22% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects Zverev as a clear favourite, with the German ranked significantly higher and possessing extensive Grand Slam experience. Mensik, a rising Czech talent born in 2005, would need to execute an upset against a player who has reached multiple major quarter-finals and semi-finals. The current pricing suggests the market views this as a heavily tilted matchup, though Mensik's youth and improving ranking trajectory merit consideration.
Historical context shows that Zverev has struggled with consistency at Roland Garros relative to other majors, reaching the semi-finals only once (2021). Mensik's limited Grand Slam exposure means his clay-court form and mental resilience under pressure remain unproven at this level. Comparable second-round encounters involving rising players against established top-20 opponents typically settle in the 15–25% range for the underdog, placing this market's current probability within expected parameters for the skill differential.
Traders should monitor Mensik's performance in ATP events and clay-court tournaments throughout spring 2026, as form leading into Roland Garros will be crucial. Zverev's injury history—particularly his ankle issues—warrants attention, though no recent concerns have been reported. The scheduled 8:30 AM ET start time may influence match dynamics. Settlement occurs 7 June 2026 at 12:30 UTC, providing a tight window for resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Stade Roland GarrosStade Roland Garros is a complex of tennis courts, including stadiums, located in Paris that hosts the French Open. That tournament, also known as Roland Garros, is a major tennis championship played annually in late May and early June. The complex is named after Roland Garros (1888–1918), a pioneering French aviator, and was constructed in 1928 to host Fran
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Roland Garros (aviator)Eugène Adrien Roland Georges Garros was a French aviation pioneer and fighter pilot. A self-taught pilot, he performed many early aviation feats such as the first-ever airplane crossing of the Mediterranean Sea in 1913. He later joined the French Army and became one of the earliest fighter pilots during First World War.
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Roland Garros AirportRoland Garros Airport, formerly known as Gillot Airport, is an international airport located in Sainte-Marie on Réunion, France. The airport is 7 kilometres (3.8 NM) east of Saint-Denis; it is named after the French aviator Roland Garros, who was born in Saint-Denis.
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French OpenRoland-Garros, also known as the French Open, is a tennis tournament organized by the French Tennis Federation annually at Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. It is chronologically the second of the four Grand Slam tennis events every year, held after the Australian Open and before Wimbledon and the US Open. It was established in 1891 but it did not become
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$8K in lifetime turnover and $303K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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