Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Harold Mayot and Semen Pankin in the Centurion 2, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Harold Mayot' if Harold Mayot advances against Semen Pankin. This market will resolve to 'Semen Pankin' if Semen Pankin advances against Harold Mayot. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Harold Mayot and Semen Pankin are scheduled to meet in the second round of the Centurion 2 tournament on 3 June 2026 at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, suggesting traders view both players as evenly matched for this encounter. The settlement window closes on 10 June, allowing a seven-day buffer for fixture delays or rescheduling before the market resolves to a tie-break outcome.
Mayot, a French player ranked outside the top 100, has shown inconsistent form on the ATP circuit with limited tournament victories at this level. Pankin, a Russian competitor, similarly operates in the lower-to-mid ranking tiers. Historical precedent from comparable second-round matchups between players of equivalent ranking suggests that head-to-head records, recent form trajectories, and surface-specific performance metrics typically drive probability shifts away from parity. The 50-50 reading indicates either limited historical data between these specific opponents or genuine uncertainty among traders regarding recent conditioning and match preparation.
Traders should monitor official Centurion 2 draw confirmations and any withdrawal announcements from either player in the days preceding 3 June. Surface conditions at the host venue and recent ATP Challenger results for both competitors will likely trigger probability movements. Injury updates or late schedule adjustments could materialise through ATP or tournament communications, particularly given the early morning fixture time, which occasionally attracts rescheduling requests.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$164 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $164 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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