Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Dusan Lajovic and Daniel Altmaier in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dusan Lajovic' if Dusan Lajovic advances against Daniel Altmaier. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Altmaier' if Daniel Altmaier advances against Dusan Lajovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 Winner | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Match O/U 21.5 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
Dusan Lajovic and Daniel Altmaier are scheduled to meet at the Valencia Open in May 2026, with the market currently pricing Lajovic's advancement at 41% on Polymarket's order book. The match was originally set for 14 May at 04:30 ET, though the settlement window extends to 21 May to account for potential scheduling shifts. The 41% probability reflects modest confidence in Altmaier's chances, suggesting the market views Lajovic as the favoured player despite the relatively tight odds.
Lajovic, a Serbian player ranked in the ATP's upper tier, has historically performed well on hard courts and in European tournaments, though his consistency has varied across seasons. Altmaier, a German prospect, has shown improvement in recent years but remains less established at tour level. Historical matchups between players of differing experience levels at 500-level events typically favour the higher-ranked competitor, though upsets occur frequently enough to justify meaningful probability for the underdog. The current pricing suggests the market is accounting for Altmaier's potential rather than treating this as a heavily one-sided affair.
Traders should monitor official ATP scheduling announcements and any injury reports in the week preceding the event, as Valencia's draw can shift based on withdrawals. Weather conditions at the coastal venue may also influence match dynamics. The settlement window's seven-day buffer means delays are unlikely to trigger a 50-50 resolution unless the match remains unfinished beyond 21 May, which is rare for tour-level play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$116 in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $116 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: