Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Alastair Gray and Manish Sureshkumar in the Bengaluru 2, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alastair Gray' if Alastair Gray advances against Manish Sureshkumar. This market will resolve to 'Manish Sureshkumar' if Manish Sureshkumar advances against Alastair Gray. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bengaluru 2: Alastair Gray vs Manish Sureshkumar | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Alastair Gray and Manish Sureshkumar are scheduled to meet in the Bengaluru 2 tournament on 13 May 2026. The match carries an 88% implied probability for Gray's advancement on Polymarket's order book, reflecting substantial confidence in the British player's progression past his Indian opponent. Settlement occurs by 20 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude.
Gray holds a significant ranking advantage over Sureshkumar, which underpins the current probability skew. Comparable ATP Challenger matches between players of differing calibre typically see 85–90% probabilities assigned to higher-ranked competitors, particularly when the gap exceeds 200 positions on the ATP rankings. Sureshkumar's home-court advantage in Bengaluru provides marginal offset to this disparity, though historical data suggests domestic advantage rarely shifts outcomes by more than 5–8 percentage points in professional tennis.
The primary catalyst affecting this market remains fixture confirmation and player availability. Tournament scheduling announcements, injury reports, or withdrawal declarations could trigger immediate repricing. Traders should monitor ATP Challenger circuit updates and both players' social media channels for withdrawal notices, which occasionally emerge within 48 hours of scheduled matches. Weather conditions in Bengaluru during mid-May—particularly monsoon-season rainfall—present a secondary risk factor that could delay proceedings beyond the settlement window, triggering the 50-50 resolution clause. Current order book depth will determine execution costs for positions at the 88% level.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bengaluru 2: Alastair Gray vs Manish Sureshkumar" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$101 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $101 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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