Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Rinky Hijikata in the Birmingham, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Rinky Hijikata. This market will resolve to 'Rinky Hijikata' if Rinky Hijikata advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 Winner | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Match O/U 22.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Arthur Fery and Rinky Hijikata are scheduled to meet in the Birmingham tournament on 5 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 54% implied probability for Fery's advancement, suggesting near-parity between the two competitors with a modest lean towards the French player. Settlement occurs on 12 June, allowing a one-week window for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Fery, ranked outside the top 100 for much of his career, has shown inconsistent results on grass courts, where Birmingham's tournament is contested. Hijikata, the Australian left-hander, similarly lacks a dominant grass-court record but has demonstrated competitive depth in ATP-level matches. Historical precedent suggests matches between players of comparable ranking and surface aptitude typically settle near 50-50 odds; the current 54% weighting towards Fery likely reflects recent form data or head-to-head records available to market participants pricing the order book today.
Traders should monitor official ATP and tournament communications regarding player fitness and schedule confirmations in the week preceding 5 June. Withdrawal announcements or weather disruptions affecting the Birmingham schedule could shift probabilities materially. Recent tournament draws and qualifying results will provide updated context on both players' preparation levels. Any late-breaking ranking changes or injury reports should be cross-referenced against the current spread, as the 4-percentage-point margin leaves room for meaningful repricing if new information emerges.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$50 in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $50 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: