Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Dellien and Max Schoenhaus in the Heilbronn, originally scheduled for June 1, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Dellien' if Hugo Dellien advances against Max Schoenhaus. This market will resolve to 'Max Schoenhaus' if Max Schoenhaus advances against Hugo Dellien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the YES side at 59%, making this a coinflip market with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $4K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Set 1 Winner | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Match O/U 22.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Hugo Dellien and Max Schoenhaus are scheduled to meet in the Heilbronn tournament on 1 June 2026. The market currently reflects a 65% probability for Dellien to advance, as shown on Polymarket's order book. Settlement occurs on 8 June, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude; cancellation, ties, or delays beyond that threshold trigger a 50-50 resolution.
Dellien, a Bolivian player ranked in the ATP's lower-middle tier, has competed regularly on the Challenger circuit and occasionally on the main tour. Schoenhaus, a German player, typically competes at Challenger level domestically. The 65% lean towards Dellien likely reflects a modest ranking advantage or recent form differential, though both players operate in a competitive band where upsets are routine. Historical Challenger-level matchups between players of comparable standing often see the higher-ranked or in-form player favoured by 60–70%, consistent with current pricing.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals as the event approaches. Injury announcements or last-minute scheduling changes could shift the probability materially. Recent form in the weeks before Heilbronn—particularly results from May Challenger events—will provide concrete data on which player enters with momentum. Weather conditions in Heilbronn during early June and court surface conditions may also influence match outcomes, though such factors typically emerge only days before play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 8 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($4K of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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