Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Taro Daniel and Damir Dzumhur in the Prostejov, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Taro Daniel' if Taro Daniel advances against Damir Dzumhur. This market will resolve to 'Damir Dzumhur' if Damir Dzumhur advances against Taro Daniel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Taro Daniel and Damir Dzumhur are scheduled to meet in the Prostejov tournament on 4 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Daniel's advancement at 37%, implying Dzumhur is favoured at 63%. This pricing reflects real-time sentiment from active traders rather than consensus odds from traditional sportsbooks, which often differ materially on lower-tier ATP events.
Daniel, a Japanese player ranked around 90–100 on the ATP, has shown inconsistent form on clay courts where Prostejov is played. Dzumhur, a Bosnian player with similar ranking trajectory, has historically performed better in Central European clay tournaments. Head-to-head records between players at this ranking tier are often sparse, making comparable recent matches between similarly-ranked opponents the primary reference point. When two players of equivalent ranking meet on a surface where one has demonstrated marginal advantages in recent seasons, the favourite typically trades at 55–65% probability; Dzumhur's current 63% sits within that band.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals in the week before 4 June, as injuries or scheduling conflicts at smaller events can shift probabilities sharply. Weather forecasts for the Prostejov region may also influence clay-court conditions and favour one player's style. The settlement window closes 11 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for delayed matches or retirements mid-play. Any official postponement beyond that date triggers a 50-50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$233 in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $233 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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