Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Raphael Collignon and Alexander Shevchenko in the Bordeaux, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Raphael Collignon' if Raphael Collignon advances against Alexander Shevchenko. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Shevchenko' if Alexander Shevchenko advances against Raphael Collignon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko Set 1 Winner | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko Match O/U 21.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko Match O/U 22.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Raphael Collignon and Alexander Shevchenko are scheduled to compete in a Bordeaux ATP Challenger match on 14 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Collignon's advancement at 72%, reflecting a substantial favourite position. Settlement occurs on 21 May, allowing a seven-day window for match completion; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Collignon, a French player competing on home soil, typically commands a modest home-court premium in Challenger-level markets. Historical data from similar regional matchups suggests that domestic players in their own country trade 8–15 percentage points higher than neutral-venue equivalents, though this varies with ranking differential and recent form. Shevchenko's baseline odds would ordinarily reflect his seeding and recent results; the 72 per cent probability indicates the market is pricing in both Collignon's territorial advantage and a meaningful gap in current playing strength.
Traders should monitor ATP Challenger draw confirmations and any withdrawal announcements in the fortnight before the event. Injury reports or late ranking shifts could alter the perceived quality gap between the two players. Weather conditions in Bordeaux during mid-May occasionally disrupt clay-court schedules; sustained rain could trigger the delay clause. Recent form updates—particularly results from qualifying rounds or warm-up events—will likely shift the order book in the days immediately preceding the match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Alexander Shevchenko" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $34K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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