Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tristan Boyer and Inaki Montes in the Tunis, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tristan Boyer' if Tristan Boyer advances against Inaki Montes. This market will resolve to 'Inaki Montes' if Inaki Montes advances against Tristan Boyer. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes Set 1 Winner | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes Match O/U 21.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes Match O/U 22.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Tristan Boyer and Inaki Montes are scheduled to meet in Tunis on 15 May 2026, with the match originally set for 7:30 AM ET. The market currently prices Boyer's advancement at 30% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting modest backing for the Spanish player despite the French competitor's seeding or recent form advantage. Settlement occurs on 22 May, allowing a week for completion; matches delayed beyond that window without a winner resolve to 50-50, whilst walkovers or retirements after play begins favour the advancing player.
Historical ATP Challenger and ITF circuit results between lower-ranked players show considerable volatility in pre-match pricing, particularly when one competitor carries recent momentum from qualifying rounds or a favourable draw. Boyer's current 30% implied probability suggests the market views him as a clear underdog, though this assessment depends heavily on recent head-to-head records, surface preference on clay courts typical of North African venues, and ranking differential. Montes' positioning as the implied favourite aligns with typical market behaviour when one player holds a ranking advantage or recent win streak.
Traders should monitor official ATP or ITF tournament draws and any withdrawal announcements in the days preceding the match. Weather disruptions affecting the Tunis schedule, injury updates from either player's social media or official tour statements, and shifts in the order book as match day approaches will signal confidence changes. Court surface conditions and first-serve percentages in recent matches provide concrete data points for reassessing the current 30% valuation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$36 in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $36 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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