Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Barrios and Nishesh Basavareddy in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Barrios' if Tomas Barrios advances against Nishesh Basavareddy. This market will resolve to 'Nishesh Basavareddy' if Nishesh Basavareddy advances against Tomas Barrios. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Nishesh Basavareddy | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Tomas Barrios and Nishesh Basavareddy are scheduled to meet in the Oeiras 4 tournament on 13 May 2026, with the winner advancing in the draw. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating genuine uncertainty amongst traders about which player will prevail in this ATP Challenger-level match.
Barrios, a Chilean player, and Basavareddy, an American competitor, operate at similar ranking tiers within the professional tennis circuit. Historical matchups between players of comparable ability at Challenger level typically settle near even odds, particularly when neither competitor has established recent dominance over the other. The 50-50 probability mirrors what one would expect absent significant form differentials or head-to-head records favouring one player decisively.
Traders should monitor several factors before the settlement window closes on 20 May. Court surface conditions at the Oeiras venue—typically clay—may favour particular playing styles, and recent tournament results from both players in the weeks preceding 13 May will signal current form. Any withdrawal announcements, injury reports, or schedule changes affecting either competitor could shift the order book materially. The seven-day buffer in the settlement terms means delays beyond 20 May without a completed match would trigger a 50-50 resolution, introducing additional risk for traders holding positions as the scheduled date approaches.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Nishesh Basavareddy" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $453 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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