Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Roberto Carballes Baena in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Roberto Carballes Baena. This market will resolve to 'Roberto Carballes Baena' if Roberto Carballes Baena advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena Match O/U 21.5 | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 1 Winner | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
Sebastian Baez and Roberto Carballes Baena are scheduled to meet in the Valencia tournament on 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 72% implied probability for Baez to advance, suggesting the market views him as a clear favourite. This probability has formed through trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread between bid and ask prices narrowing as the match date approaches.
Baez, an Argentine player ranked in the ATP's top 100, has historically performed well on hard courts and carries momentum from recent tournament appearances. Carballes Baena, also Argentine, competes at a lower ranking and has limited recent form at this tournament level. Historical matchups between players of differing rankings at this stage typically see the higher-ranked player prevail 70–75% of the time, which aligns closely with the current market pricing.
Traders should monitor official ATP announcements regarding player withdrawals or injury updates, particularly in the week preceding 12 May. Valencia's hard court surface conditions and any scheduling changes affecting player preparation will influence match dynamics. The settlement window closes on 19 May at 10:00 UTC, allowing seven days for the match to be completed; any cancellation or postponement beyond this period triggers a 50-50 resolution. Recent tournament reports should be checked for Baez's current fitness status and recent match results against comparable opponents.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$144 in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $144 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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