Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida and Hernan Casanova in the Cordoba, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida' if Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida advances against Hernan Casanova. This market will resolve to 'Hernan Casanova' if Hernan Casanova advances against Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova Set 1 Winner | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida faces Hernan Casanova in an ATP Challenger match at Córdoba, originally scheduled for 11 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating genuine uncertainty amongst traders regarding which player advances from this first-round encounter. The settlement window closes on 18 May, allowing a week's buffer beyond the scheduled date for match completion.
Pucinelli de Almeida, a Brazilian player, and Casanova, an Argentine competitor, represent relatively comparable ranking tiers within the Challenger circuit. Historical precedent suggests that matches between players of similar standing at this level tend to generate balanced probability distributions, particularly when neither player carries recent dominant form or a clear head-to-head advantage. Court surface—clay at Córdoba—favours certain playing styles, though both players typically compete across multiple surfaces without pronounced specialisation.
Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger draw confirmations and any late withdrawals or injury announcements in the days preceding 11 May. Weather conditions at Córdoba during that period could affect match scheduling, particularly given the one-week grace period before market resolution. Recent form indicators, including results from preceding weeks' tournaments, will likely shift the order book as the match date approaches. Any official postponement announcements or player statements regarding fitness would constitute material information for position adjustments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Cordoba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Hernan Casanova" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$47 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $40 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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