Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly launches a fully driverless taxi service by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Any service that allows a member of the general public to summon and ride in a Tesla vehicle operating without any human—onboard or remote—actively controlling the vehicle will count. A human may be present in the vehicle or monitoring remotely for emergency intervention, but they must not be physically positioned to take control (for example, no safety driver in the driver’s seat) and must not actively steer, brake, accelerate, or otherwise drive the car under normal operation.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Tesla has committed to launching a fully autonomous robotaxi service—vehicles operating without safety drivers or remote human control—by the end of June 2026. The service must be publicly accessible to the general public and allow passengers to summon and ride in Tesla vehicles with no active human intervention, though monitoring systems may exist for emergency purposes. This represents a substantial acceleration from current capabilities, where Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) beta requires driver supervision and intervention.
The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence grounded in Elon Musk's repeated public commitments and Tesla's technical trajectory. In comparable cases, autonomous vehicle timelines have historically slipped—Waymo took over a decade to launch limited driverless services in specific geographies, whilst Cruise faced regulatory setbacks that delayed deployment. However, Tesla's approach differs materially: it operates under less stringent regulatory frameworks in some jurisdictions and has deployed FSD to hundreds of thousands of vehicles for real-world testing. The current probability pricing suggests traders believe Tesla will meet this deadline, though the service need only launch in one location to satisfy resolution criteria.
Key catalysts include Tesla's planned robotaxi unveiling event, regulatory approvals in target markets (likely California or Texas), and quarterly earnings calls where management discusses deployment timelines. Recent statements from Musk in late 2024 indicated the service would begin in specific cities within months. Any delays announced, regulatory rejections, or technical setbacks would likely shift market pricing downward. The settlement window closes 30 June 2026, leaving approximately eighteen months for execution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by June 30, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$117K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 10 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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