Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue for the second fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $5.7B | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| $5.8B | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| $5.9B | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| $6.0B | 41% YES | 60% NO |
Applied Materials will report its fiscal Q2 2026 revenue from Semiconductor Systems operations, with the market currently pricing a 93% probability that this figure exceeds a specified threshold. The settlement depends on official earnings disclosures expected around mid-May 2026, with no consideration given to subsequent revisions or restatements. Polymarket's order book is reflecting this high implied probability, suggesting substantial trader confidence in the company exceeding the revenue target.
Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems segment has historically represented roughly 40-50% of total revenue, making it a material component of earnings outcomes. The segment's performance tracks closely with semiconductor capital equipment cycles and foundry utilisation rates. Recent quarters have shown volatility tied to customer inventory adjustments and fab capacity planning, though the broader industry environment has stabilised following the 2023-2024 downturn. Comparable equipment manufacturers have reported mixed results, with some exceeding guidance whilst others faced demand headwinds, suggesting execution risk remains despite sector recovery narratives.
Traders should monitor Applied Materials' pre-earnings guidance updates and any management commentary on customer spending intentions, particularly from leading-edge logic and memory manufacturers. Industry conferences and analyst calls through spring 2026 will provide visibility on capital equipment demand trajectories. Supply chain developments and geopolitical trade policy shifts affecting semiconductor manufacturing could materially influence quarterly results. The settlement window closes 14 May 2026, aligning with typical earnings release timing for the fiscal period.
Applied Materials, Inc. is an American corporation that supplies equipment, services and software for the manufacture of semiconductor chips for electronics, flat panel displays for computers, smartphones, televisions, and solar products. The company also supplies equipment to produce coatings for flexible electronics, packaging and other applications. The c
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue be above __ in Q2?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $76 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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