Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1550 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| 1570 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| 1560 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard tracks performance across multiple benchmarks, with the Coding category measuring how well language models solve programming tasks. The current 51% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether any model will reach the specified threshold by end of June 2026. This represents roughly even odds between resolution to Yes and No, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating active disagreement amongst traders on the likelihood of the target being met within the 18-month window.
Historical progression on the Coding Leaderboard shows incremental rather than dramatic score improvements. Claude 3.5 Sonnet and GPT-4o have dominated recent rankings, with top scores in the 1,400–1,500 range depending on evaluation methodology. Previous score increases of 50–100 points have typically required either new model releases or significant architectural improvements, suggesting the threshold difficulty matters considerably for resolution. Comparable technical benchmarks like HumanEval and LeetCode-style evaluations have seen steady gains but rarely explosive jumps, which contextualises the current probability as reflecting realistic expectations about model development velocity.
Key catalysts include scheduled model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and other labs, which typically drive leaderboard updates within weeks of announcement. The timeline extends through major AI conferences and product cycles, with particular attention to any December 2025 or early 2026 releases that could influence final-quarter performance. Traders should monitor Arena.ai directly for leaderboard updates, as new evaluations can shift scores substantially. The resolution depends entirely on the official Coding Arena Score column, making leaderboard methodology changes a secondary consideration.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $978 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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