Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Company C | — | |
| Company D | — | |
| Company H | — | |
| Company J | — | |
| Company L | — | |
| Company G | — | |
| ByteDance | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Mistral | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard ranks large language models through comparative user evaluations, with Anthropic's Claude, OpenAI's GPT models, and Meta's Llama variants typically occupying top positions. This market resolves to whichever company owns the model ranked third on the "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard with style control enabled on 31 May 2026. The ranking methodology weights recent evaluations more heavily, meaning model performance trajectories over the coming eighteen months will substantially influence final positioning rather than current standings alone.
Historical Chatbot Arena rankings have shown considerable volatility, particularly when major model releases occur. OpenAI's GPT-4 variants, Anthropic's Claude iterations, and emerging competitors have cycled through top-three positions following significant capability announcements. The third-place position proves especially sensitive to competitive releases, as marginal performance differences between models ranked two through five can shift dramatically with new versions. Previous leaderboard snapshots indicate that companies releasing updated models in the six months preceding May 2026 will likely influence which entity claims the third position.
Traders should monitor scheduled model releases from major AI laboratories, particularly announcements from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and Meta regarding new versions or capability improvements. Regulatory developments affecting model evaluation standards, changes to Chatbot Arena's evaluation methodology, and shifts in user preference patterns documented through arena voting will all shape final rankings. The current absence of live pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about which company's model will occupy this specific position given the extended timeframe and competitive landscape.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which company has the #3 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $300 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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