Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the package counter in the specified livestream displays a figure equal to or higher than the specified figure at any point prior to May 21, 2026, 10:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 200,000+ | 77% YES | 24% NO |
| 250,000+ | 34% YES | 67% NO |
Figure AI is conducting an eight-hour livestreamed demonstration of its F.03 humanoid robots performing autonomous package sorting and conveyor operations. The market resolves affirmatively if the package counter visible during the stream reaches a specified threshold at any point before the May 21, 2026 deadline. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 74% implied probability, reflecting moderate confidence that the robots will achieve the target volume during the scheduled window.
Comparable demonstrations of autonomous robotics capabilities have historically faced execution variability. Boston Dynamics' public showcases and Tesla's Optimus presentations have shown both impressive capabilities and occasional technical limitations during live events. The 74% probability suggests traders are pricing in meaningful execution risk—whether from hardware failures, software glitches, or operational bottlenecks during the extended runtime. Historical precedent indicates that eight-hour continuous autonomous operations remain challenging for humanoid systems, particularly in repetitive sorting tasks requiring sustained precision.
The key catalyst is Figure's actual livestream performance on the scheduled date. Traders should monitor any pre-event announcements regarding technical specifications, the exact package threshold being targeted, and whether Figure provides updated timelines or capability claims in the weeks leading to May 2026. Recent coverage of humanoid robotics development suggests the sector remains in demonstration phase, with companies frequently adjusting public commitments based on engineering progress. Any Figure announcements regarding F.03 production readiness or operational metrics would likely shift the order book materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "# of Packages Pushed by Figure's F.03 Robots by May 21, 10 PM ET?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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