Trade: Cerebras IPO Closing Market Cap
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Cerebras Systems' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $435
- 24h Volume
- $435
- Open Interest
- $224
Market outcomes
| <$50B | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| $50B–$60B | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| $60B–$70B | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| $70B–$80B | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| $80B–$90B | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| $90B–$100B | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| $100B+ | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| No IPO before July 2026 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
Cerebras Systems, a specialist in large-scale AI chip design and manufacture, is expected to pursue an initial public offering with pricing scheduled for 14 May 2026. The market will settle on the company's market capitalisation at the closing price on its first trading day, calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price. Should the IPO not occur by 30 June 2026, the market resolves to "No IPO before July 2026". Current order book activity on Polymarket implies a 60% probability of the IPO proceeding as scheduled, reflecting moderate confidence amongst traders that the company will reach public markets within the settlement window.
Comparable IPO valuations in the semiconductor and AI infrastructure space offer context for reading current probability. Nvidia's 1999 IPO valued the company at approximately $2.3bn; more recently, Broadcom priced at $37.6bn in 2020 and SoftBank's Vision Fund portfolio companies have commanded substantial valuations. Cerebras has raised over $500m in private funding and competes directly with established players in accelerated computing, suggesting institutional appetite exists for the sector.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding market conditions, regulatory clearance, and any postponements or cancellations. The Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and technology sector sentiment will influence pricing momentum. Recent volatility in semiconductor stocks and broader equity markets directly affects IPO timing decisions, as underwriters typically delay offerings during periods of depressed valuations or elevated market uncertainty.
Wikipedia Context
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Cerebral polyopia
Cerebral diplopia or polyopia describes seeing two or more images arranged in ordered rows, columns, or diagonals after fixation on a stimulus. The polyopic images occur monocular bilaterally and binocularly, differentiating it from ocular diplopia or polyopia. The number of duplicated images can range from one to hundreds. Some patients report difficulty in
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Internal carotid arteryThe internal carotid artery is an artery in the neck which supplies the anterior and middle cerebral circulation.
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Retroflex consonantA retroflex consonant is a coronal consonant where the tongue has a flat, concave, or even curled shape, and is articulated between the alveolar ridge and the hard palate. They are sometimes referred to as cerebral consonants—especially in Indology. Other terms are domal and cacuminal, though in rare cases either word can mean palatal consonants more broadly
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ApoplexyApoplexy refers to the rupture of an internal organ and the associated symptoms. Informally or metaphorically, the term apoplexy is associated with being furious, especially as "apoplectic". Historically, it described what is now known as a hemorrhagic stroke, typically involving a ruptured blood vessel in the brain; modern medicine typically specifies the a
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Cerebras IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$435 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $435 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Cerebras IPO Closing Market Cap"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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