Trade: #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $322
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| ChatGPT | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Google Gemini | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Claude by Anthropic | 70% YES | 30% NO |
| 3% YES | 97% NO | |
| Instants, an Instagram app | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| App E | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Threads | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| CapCut: Photo & Video Editor | 11% YES | 89% NO |
Market context
The market concerns which application will occupy the second position on Apple's US iPhone App Store free apps chart on 5 June 2026. The ranking reflects aggregate download activity and user engagement across the preceding period, with the top positions typically dominated by established social media, messaging, and utility applications. Apple's algorithm weights recent downloads heavily, making the top two slots particularly volatile as they respond to viral trends, new releases, and seasonal usage patterns.
Historical data shows that positions two through five on Apple's free charts experience considerably more turnover than the number-one slot, which has remained relatively stable over multi-month periods. The current 16% implied probability reflects substantial uncertainty about which application will occupy this specific position. Comparable markets tracking top-ten placements have demonstrated that without a major catalyst—such as a high-profile app launch, celebrity endorsement, or viral social media moment—the ranking typically stabilises around incumbent players like WhatsApp, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube. The ordering between these established applications shifts based on marginal usage fluctuations rather than dramatic shifts in user behaviour.
Traders should monitor announcements from major technology firms regarding app launches or significant updates scheduled for late May or early June 2026. Viral trends on platforms like TikTok and Twitter can rapidly shift download volumes within days. Additionally, any changes to Apple's ranking algorithm or featured app selections could alter competitive dynamics. The settlement window closes on 6 June at 03:59 UTC, providing a narrow observation period for the specific ranking snapshot.
Wikipedia Context
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California State Route 2State Route 2 (SR 2) is a state highway in the U.S. state of California. It connects the Los Angeles Basin with the San Gabriel Mountains and the Victor Valley in the Mojave Desert. The highway's southwestern end is at the intersection of Centinela Avenue at the Santa Monica-Los Angeles border and its northeastern end is at SR 138 east of Wrightwood. The SR
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Twins (group)Twins is a Hong Kong pop duo formed in 2001 by Emperor Entertainment Group (EEG) and composed of Charlene Choi and Gillian Chung.
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28 Weeks Later28 Weeks Later is a 2007 post-apocalyptic action horror film directed by Juan Carlos Fresnadillo, who co-wrote it with Rowan Joffé, Enrique López Lavigne, and Jesús Olmo. It is a standalone sequel to 28 Days Later (2002) and the second instalment in its series. The film stars Robert Carlyle, Rose Byrne, Jeremy Renner, Harold Perrineau, Catherine McCormack, M
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2. Frauen-BundesligaThe 2. Frauen-Bundesliga is the second league competition for women's association football in Germany. For its first 14 seasons the league was divided into two groups: Nord and Süd. The winner and the runner-up are promoted to the Bundesliga ; the last three places are relegated to the Regionalliga. Until the 2017–18 season, in each group, the winner was pro
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $322 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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