Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Sweden Allsvenskan game between GAIS and Degerfors IF, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| GAIS | 68% YES | 32% NO |
| Draw | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| Degerfors IF | 55% YES | 45% NO |
GAIS will host Degerfors IF in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 16 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 68% implied probability for a GAIS halftime advantage, suggesting the market prices the home side as clear favourites to lead at the interval. This probability has formed through cumulative trading activity and represents the collective assessment of available information regarding team form, tactical setup, and early-match dynamics.
Historical patterns in Allsvenskan halftime markets show that home-team advantages typically manifest in the 55–70% range depending on relative league position and recent performance. GAIS, competing in the top flight, would ordinarily command such backing when hosting lower-ranked opposition. However, Degerfors' recent results and squad stability merit scrutiny; teams with solid defensive records have historically compressed halftime probabilities even in away fixtures. The 68% figure sits within expected bounds but warrants examination of whether it reflects genuine form differentials or standard home-ground pricing.
Traders should monitor team news through to kickoff, particularly injury confirmations affecting either side's starting eleven. Allsvekskan fixture scheduling occasionally produces fatigue factors worth assessing—fixture congestion in the weeks preceding 16 May could influence early-match intensity. Weather conditions at the scheduled 9:00 AM ET start time may also affect early play tempo. Current squad availability and any late tactical adjustments from either manager will be the primary catalysts reshaping the order book in the final hours before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.allsvenskan.se/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "GAIS vs. Degerfors IF - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sweden allsvenskan contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.allsvenskan.se/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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