Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| United Kingdom | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| France | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Germany | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Italy | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Netherlands | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Japan | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Canada | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| India | 4% YES | 96% NO |
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically significant chokepoints, with roughly one-fifth of global petroleum passing through its 21-nautical-mile width annually. The question of which countries will deploy warships through this waterway by mid-2026 hinges on geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Western powers, as well as broader regional stability. The current 8% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a baseline expectation that most major naval powers will avoid deliberate transits during this period, though the market is pricing in meaningful tail risk given historical precedent.
The United States Navy has conducted freedom-of-navigation operations through the Strait regularly since the 1980s, whilst European navies have increased presence in recent years. In 2021, the UK and France both transited with carrier strike groups, and Australia has periodically deployed vessels. China and India have also maintained naval operations in the region. The low probability reflects an assumption that current geopolitical conditions will not escalate to force additional major-power naval demonstrations, though any significant escalation between Iran and Western states, or disruption to shipping, could rapidly shift expectations.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding US carrier strike group deployments, European naval task force schedules, and any statements from Iran regarding restrictions on foreign military vessels. Recent tensions over drone attacks and regional proxy activity have kept the Strait in focus. The resolution criteria require confirmation from credible reporting or official government sources, meaning ambiguous transits or unconfirmed claims will not trigger settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30K in lifetime turnover and $104K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for strait of hormuz contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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