Trade: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $861
- 24h Volume
- $861
- Open Interest
- $859
Market outcomes
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 53% YES | 48% NO |
Market context
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil transits, has experienced significant volatility in shipping traffic over recent years. This market tests whether daily transit calls—measured as a seven-day moving average by IMF Portwatch across container, bulk, tanker, and general cargo vessels—will recover to 60 or above by end-July 2026. The threshold of 60 daily arrivals represents a normalised baseline for the chokepoint. Current Polymarket pricing reflects 53% probability of this recovery, suggesting traders assess near-even odds that traffic will stabilise within the 18-month window.
Historical precedent matters considerably here. The strait experienced sustained disruption from 2019 onwards, with tensions between Iran and the United States creating episodic shocks to transit volumes. More recently, Houthi attacks on shipping from late 2023 through 2024 reduced traffic measurably, though not to crisis levels. Recovery timelines from comparable maritime disruptions—including the Suez Canal blockage in 2021—typically span 6–12 months once triggering incidents resolve, suggesting the 18-month settlement window provides reasonable scope for normalisation.
Traders should monitor three key variables: announcements regarding Iranian nuclear negotiations or US sanctions policy, which directly influence regional stability; Houthi operational capability and any ceasefire developments in Yemen; and published IMF Portwatch data itself, which will confirm whether the seven-day average has crossed the threshold. Recent reporting from maritime intelligence firms indicates traffic has gradually recovered from 2024 lows, though remains below historical norms. Any escalation in regional tensions would pressure the YES side downward.
Wikipedia Context
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Strait of HormuzThe Strait of Hormuz is a waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. On the north coast lies Iran, and on the south coast lies the Musandam Peninsula under the Musandam Governorate of Oman, with a portion of the southwest of the peninsula under the United Arab Emirates. The strait is about 104 miles long, with a width varying from about 60 mi to
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Battle of the Strait of Hormuz (1553)The Battle of the Strait of Hormuz was fought in August 1553 between an Ottoman fleet, commanded by Admiral Murat Reis, against a Portuguese fleet of Dom Diogo de Noronha. The Turks were forced to retreat after clashing with the Portuguese.
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2026 Strait of Hormuz crisisShipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran and assassinated its supreme leader Ali Khamenei. In retaliation, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel, US military bases,
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 53% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $189 if YES resolves true — a 89% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$861 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for strait of hormuz contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $861 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 53%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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