Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the professional, collegiate, or FIBA-recognized international basketball team that Steve Kerr officially joins next in his sole or primary basketball capacity between this market's launch and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying roles include, but are not limited to, head coach, assistant coach, or senior front office/basketball operations positions, provided the role is announced as his sole or primary basketball role. Steve Kerr retaining his current position with the Golden State Warriors (or any extension/renewal with the Warriors) will resolve this market to "Golden State Warriors".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Boston Celtics | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Denver Nuggets | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Golden State Warriors | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Indiana Pacers | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Miami Heat | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Steve Kerr has been the head coach of the Golden State Warriors since 2023, and this market concerns whether he will move to a different professional, collegiate, or FIBA-recognised basketball organisation in a primary coaching or senior basketball operations role before the end of 2026. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of any credible reporting suggesting an imminent departure, and the substantial friction required for a sitting NBA head coach of a championship-contending franchise to change positions mid-contract.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison. Kerr's own move to Golden State came after 16 years with the Phoenix Suns, and most NBA head coaches either remain in post for multiple seasons or depart following dismissal rather than voluntary mid-contract moves. The 0% probability also reflects the typical structure of NBA coaching contracts, which include guaranteed compensation and create disincentives for early exits. Coaches typically move only when fired, when their contract expires, or in rare cases when mutual agreement permits departure.
Catalysts for movement would centre on either Kerr's contract status or material changes to the Warriors' circumstances. The NBA off-season (June–September annually) represents the primary window for coaching transitions, with vacancies typically announced after playoff conclusions. Any reporting from credible sources regarding Kerr's contract expiration date, the Warriors' front office stability, or explicit interest from other franchises would shift market pricing. Currently, no such signals exist in public reporting.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which team will Steve Kerr join next by the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$45K in lifetime turnover and $49K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for steve kerr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $18 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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