Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Vanhouter" if Da'Mazion Vanhouter is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raphael Murphy at Zuffa Boxing 6: Mosley Jr. vs. Bohachuk, scheduled for May 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Murphy" if Raphael Murphy is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.ufc.com/.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Vanhouter vs. Murphy | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Da'Mazion Vanhouter faces Raphael Murphy in a heavyweight preliminary bout at Zuffa Boxing 6, scheduled for 10 May 2026 at an event headlined by Mosley Jr. versus Bohachuk. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability for Vanhouter, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in his victory or minimal trading activity establishing a genuine price discovery. With settlement closing 11 May 2026, traders have approximately five months to reassess positioning as fight details emerge and both fighters' preparation becomes visible.
Preliminary bouts in combat sports frequently feature less established fighters or those returning from layoffs, making outcome prediction inherently uncertain compared to main-card matchups. Historical precedent shows that fighters in preliminary slots experience higher rates of cancellation, injury withdrawal, and technical complications than headliners. The current 100% probability on Polymarket's order book likely reflects sparse liquidity rather than genuine market consensus—preliminary heavyweight bouts typically attract minimal trading volume until closer to event date or following significant fighter announcements.
Key catalysts include official fighter confirmations, any injury reports or withdrawal announcements, and weight-cut complications typical in heavyweight divisions. Traders should monitor Zuffa Boxing's official communications and UFC.com for roster updates. The resolution window extends to 24 May 2026, providing buffer for postponements, though any cancellation or draw triggers a 50-50 resolution. Current pricing offers limited margin for error given the extreme probability; meaningful movement would require substantial new information regarding either fighter's status or capability.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zuffa Boxing 6: Vanhouter vs. Murphy (Heavyweight, Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$120 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $120 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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